Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-07 20.060876 21.752263 23.575207 25.695505 28.105938 30.775359 33.975205
2025-09-14 17.371734 19.700437 22.384755 25.746002 29.897672 34.933827 41.627343
2025-09-21 15.435887 18.087047 21.299674 25.558909 31.184927 38.559214 49.317823
2025-09-28 14.492588 17.467806 21.234624 26.493906 33.893894 44.362038 61.191900
2025-10-05 13.338233 16.410792 20.428899 26.264006 34.891423 47.880184 70.584241
2025-10-12 12.450652 15.589569 19.810465 26.155790 35.967444 51.625350 81.337417
2025-10-19 11.838703 15.067296 19.524081 26.450140 37.642555 56.595061 95.858233
2025-10-26 11.165152 14.394165 18.945431 26.210955 38.388684 60.081373 108.699918
2025-11-02 10.579927 13.795802 18.413476 25.966263 39.059039 63.529373 122.823110
2025-11-09 10.131099 13.357654 18.075687 25.981152 40.160785 68.021484 141.525957
2025-11-16 9.676353 12.877769 17.631836 25.764699 40.794284 71.682811 159.977760
2025-11-23 9.294199 12.480150 17.281990 25.664200 41.619171 75.940685 182.785108
2025-11-30 8.912258 12.069780 16.897069 25.490657 42.332292 80.275424 209.626486
2025-12-07 8.585831 11.726626 16.597161 25.441295 43.301244 85.549069 244.906216
2025-12-14 8.252979 11.354623 16.224103 25.221121 43.880733 90.029610 281.968090
2025-12-21 8.155718 11.344687 16.445491 26.123833 47.049730 102.655765 376.757382
2025-12-28 7.864265 11.008899 16.093582 25.893409 47.617230 107.966767 441.363320
2026-01-04 7.615445 10.728857 15.818475 25.785499 48.457437 114.481280 529.651820
2026-01-11 7.448280 10.572492 15.746306 26.073053 50.310393 125.176747 686.748812
2026-01-18 7.211010 10.289225 15.433075 25.838553 50.813025 131.369930 827.632989
2026-01-25 6.988456 10.020477 15.130268 25.598809 51.268812 137.662659 1006.017344
2026-02-01 6.816798 9.829147 14.955479 25.613356 52.412984 147.343151 1313.204096
2026-02-08 6.623494 9.593102 14.686250 25.401337 52.903748 154.592450 1660.332382